The reshaping of the future by the Covid 19 pandemic: an assessment of the impact on population and resources

The WHO declared Covid 19 as a pandemic on the eleventh of March, 2020. This led to individuals, governments, institutions and businesses asking what impact this pandemic would have on the future. What imprint would this outbreak leave on human civilisation? Pandemics can alter the course of history. Pandemics impact people, governments, policies and economies. The pandemic has broken out at a time of significant demographic transition. 2020 was the first year in documented human history where the global population of people over the age of 60 is more than the population of children younger than 5 years of age. The richer countries have high concentrations of aging populations. Historically, pandemics have had significant impacts on cities and urban areas. Public health institutions, garbage collection, sanitation, scientific drainage and hospitals all developed to varying extents in urban responses to epidemics. The covid 19 pandemic has also brought about changes. In 2019, the United Nations reported that there had been a 33 percent increase in the population of migrants across the world. The international migrant population was put at 270 million. The previous forecast was for this population level to be attained in 2050. But the pandemic has slowed the growth of migration. The impact of the pandemic on energy markets was immediate and cataclysmic. Large parts of the global economy were forced to close down. The demand for petroleum fell by 25 percent in the United States. The demand for public transport fell by 70 percent in San Francisco, 60 percent in London and 80 percent in Italy and France between March and May 2020. Pandemics and changes in climate are inextricably linked. As humans encroach further into the wild, the United Nations expects more animal viruses to infect and affect humans. 75 percent of all emerging infectious diseases originate in animals. 60 percent of viruses infecting humans come from wildlife and livestock. Zoonotic epidemics are triggered by flooding, climate variability and other extreme weather events linked to climate change. Climate change has also expanded the span of geographies susceptible to zoonoses. Even though this pandemic has brought to the fore these dangers, steps to effectively tackle climate change and to implement practices in agriculture that are more sustainable have halted. The global food system is responsible for fulfilling the nutrition requirements of 80 percent of the world's population. This system has been greatly disturbed by the pandemic. 4 shocks account for this great disturbance: 1. The movement of agricultural goods has been disturbed by restrictions on transport. 2. Supply chains have been seriously damaged by borders being sealed and bans on exports. 3. Overall production has been reduced because of major disruptions in the supply of agricultural raw material, labor and services. 4. Food purchasing power has reduced dramatically because of job losses, especially among the socioeconomically disadvantaged sections of society.Copyright © 2020 Ubiquity Press. All rights reserved.

Forecasting the Growth in Covid-19 Infection Rates

The recent times have seen the global rise in infection rates from the virus Covid-19, leading to a pandemic. The exponential rise in infections and deaths lead to panic and nation-wide lockdowns across the globe. Advancements in biotechnical and medical research have paved the way for the development and mass distribution of vaccines. To build an understanding of the current situation we did a comparative analysis of the rise in infection rates among citizens across the countries and also the growth in vaccinations in the pre-vaccination phase and the post-vaccination phase of the on-going pandemic to determine whether the rate of vaccination is more than the rate of infection or otherwise. Then, a comparison is done among two prediction models we built, one using polynomial regression and other using SVM to determine which model provides better prediction results of infection rates in a country. © 2023, The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd.

Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme 2 and Urine Amino Acid Excretion Increase in COVID-19 Patients With AKI

Background: Angiotensin-converting enzyme 2(ACE2), the receptor for SARSCoV-2, is highly expressed in the kidneys. ACE2 also possess a unique function to facilitate amino acid absorption. A persistent elevation in plasma ACE2 during COVID-19 is related to increased mortality. The present study sought to explore the relationship between urine ACE2(uACE2) and renal outcomes in COVID-19 patients. Method(s): In 104 COVID-19 patients without acute kidney injury(AKI), 43 patients with COVID-19-mediated AKI, and 36 non-COVID-19 controls, uACE2, urine tumor necrosis factor receptors I and II(uTNF-RI and uTNF-RII), neutrophil gelatinaseassociated lipocalin(uNGAL), and urine albumin-creatinine ratio were measured. We also assessed ACE2 staining in autopsy kidney samples and generated a propensityscore matched subgroup to perform a targeted urine metabolomic study to describe the characteristic urine signature of COVID-19. Result(s): uACE2 was increased in patients with COVID-19, and further increased in those that developed AKI(Figure 1). After adjusting uACE2 levels for age, sex and previous comorbidities, increased uACE2 was independently associated with over 3-fold higher risk(OR 3.05,95%CI:1.23-7.58, p=0.017) of developing AKI. Increased uACE2 corresponded to a tubular loss of ACE2 in kidney sections and strongly correlated with uTNF-RI and uTNF-RII, suggesting that ADAM17 could be responsible for ACE2 shedding. Urine quantitative metabolome analysis revealed an increased excretion of essential amino acids in COVID-19 patients, including leucine, isoleucine, tryptophan and phenylalanine. Additionally, a strong correlation was observed between urine amino acids and uACE2(Figure 1). Conclusion(s): Elevated uACE2 is related to AKI in patients with COVID-19. The loss of tubular ACE2 during SARS-CoV-2 infection demonstrates a potential link between aminoaciduria and proximal tubular injury.

Forecasting the Growth in Covid-19 Infection Rates

The recent times have seen the global rise in infection rates from the virus Covid-19, leading to a pandemic. The exponential rise in infections and deaths lead to panic and nation-wide lockdowns across the globe. Advancements in biotechnical and medical research have paved the way for the development and mass distribution of vaccines. To build an understanding of the current situation we did a comparative analysis of the rise in infection rates among citizens across the countries and also the growth in vaccinations in the pre-vaccination phase and the post-vaccination phase of the on-going pandemic to determine whether the rate of vaccination is more than the rate of infection or otherwise. Then, a comparison is done among two prediction models we built, one using polynomial regression and other using SVM to determine which model provides better prediction results of infection rates in a country. © 2023, The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd.

Predictive Analysis of the Recovery Rate from Coronavirus (COVID-19)

Estimation of recovery rate of COVID-19 positive persons is significant to measure the severity of the disease for mankind. In this work, prediction of the recovery rate is estimated based on machine learning technology. Standard data set of Kaggle has been used for experimental purpose, and the data sets of COVID cases in Italy, China and India for these countries are considered. Based on that data set and the present scenario, the proposed technique predicts the recovery rate. © 2022, The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd.

Variants of SARS-CoV-2, their effects on infection, transmission and neutralization by vaccine-induced antibodies.

OBJECTIVE: The current study reviewed Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants for their effects on infection, transmission and neutralization by vaccine-induced antibodies. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The research articles for the current study were searched over PubMed, Google Scholar, EMBASE and Web of Science online databases. The keywords used were: (("SARS-CoV-2" OR "COVID-19") AND ("mutation" OR "variant") AND ("death" OR "hospitalization" OR "infection" OR "transmission") AND ("antibody" OR "neutralize" OR "vaccine")). A total of 333 research articles were retrieved through online-database search. These articles were further scrutinized for their relevancy. Additionally, searches were performed to find the latest relevant information over Google search engine and relevant news browsers. Finally, around 35 germane articles were considered for scripting the current report. RESULTS: The mutations have changed amino acids at key positions in spike protein viz. S477N, E484K, Q677H, E484Q, L452R, K417T, K417N and N501Y. These mutations are relevant for different characteristics and are present in newly evolved strains of SARS-CoV-2 like E484K in B.1.526, B.1.525, P.2, B.1.1.7, P.1 and B.1.351. Mutations have increased the immune escape potential leading to 3.5-6.5-folds decrease in neutralization of antibodies (Pfizer and Moderna vaccines). The variant, B.1.617 circulating in India and many other countries (double variant) having E484Q and L452R mutations, has raised the infection rate and decreased the neutralization capacity of the vaccine-induced antibodies. Deadly K417N+E484K+N501Y triplet mutations found in B.1.351 and P.1 have increased the transmission ability of these strains by 50% leading to greater COVID-19 hospitalization, ICU admissions and deaths. CONCLUSIONS: The new SARS-CoV-2 variants have compromised the neutralization potential of the currently used vaccines, but still, they have considerable efficacy to reduce infection and mortality. GRAPHICAL ABSTRACT: https://www.europeanreview.org/wp/wp-content/uploads/Graphical_Abstract.jpg.

Change in practice in cervical cancer screening during covid 19 pandemic

Objective: This study aims to analyse changes in practice for cervical cancer screening in rural districts of West Bengal before and after the COVID-19 pandemic led to disruption of preventive healthcare services. Design: Retrospective cross-sectional study. Method: Data from March 2019-March 2020 and April 2020-March 2021 was retrospectively analysed from women aged 30-59 years who underwent screening in rural districts of West Bengal as part of Integrated Programme on Non-Communicable Diseases Prevention project, which has been implemented at our institute since March 2017. After onset of nationwide lockdown due to the pandemic, screening services were withheld for 2 months. From June 2020, HPV testing kits (QIAGEN) were distributed and collected by our team of health workers, while maintaining all precautions. Women who tested positive underwent colposcopy with or without treatment (by thermal ablation or LEEP) at their nearby primary health centre by our clinicians. Results: From April 2019-March 2020, 6748 women were screened using either HPV DNA testing (Hybrid Capture 2) or VIA. Cervical samples for HC2 testing were collected from 5581 women, either by provider (57.28%, n = 3197) or self-sampling (42.71%, n = 2384). VIA was done in 1167 women, 25 were positive (2.14%). From the 200 women (3.58%) who were HC2 test positive, colposcopy was performed on 113 women (56.5%). Treatment was done in 87 (76.99%) women. Thermocoagulation was the most common method used (77.02%) followed by LEEP (21.8%). From June 2020-March 2021, 5875 women were screened using only self-sampling method for HPV testing, of which 268 were HC2 positive (4.56%), of whom 183 (68.28%) underwent colposcopy. Treatment was done in 149 women (81.4%), thermocoagulation being the most common (81.87%) procedure followed by LEEP (16.77%). Conclusions: HPV self-sampling can be promoted during COVID-19 pandemic as it curtails travel and reduces human contact.

Feasibility of self-sampling for HPV Dna detection in a community-based cervical cancer screening project

Objective: Paucity of resources and trained professionals makes it difficult to implement a cervical cancer screening program in India. This study aims to evaluate the feasibility of self-sampling for detection of human papillomavirus (HPV) DNA in a communitybased cervical cancer screening project. Methods: Women (30-60 years) were assigned to do self-sampling or get their samples collected by healthcare workers in outreach clinics. The samples were brought to the institute and were tested by hybrid capture2 (HC2) test for 13 high-risk HPV types. HC2 positive women were brought to the institute where they underwent colposcopy, biopsy and treatment by Thermal ablation, Cryotherapy or Loop Electrosurgical Excision Procedure (LEEP). A focussed group discussion was done with health workers involved with this project in the form of a questionnaire. Results: From May 2017 and December 2020, 15,311 women were recruited. Amongst them, 4916 (32.1%) had self-sampling and 10,395 (67.9%) had health-worker collected sample. The HC2 positivity rates in both groups were 269 (5.5%) and 652 (6.3%), which was not significantly different statistically (P = 0.06). The colposcopy rates and Cervical Intraepithelial Neoplasia (CIN) 2 and 3 detection rates were also similar. All women were comfortable with self-sampling with no sample inadequacy or wastage of collection kits. The health workers rated both procedures as acceptable. The advantage of selfsampling was that no examining table or light source was required and the screened women were less ''shy'' while sample collection. Conclusion: Self-sampling for HPV may increase participation in cervical cancer screening programs, especially in the COVID19 era.

Approaches to comprehensive and effective rehabilitation in the covid 19 pandemic: Assessment of an oft neglected critical variable in national and global health policy making

The majority of the covid 19 infected cohort recover from mild and uncomplicated infection. 14 % of the cohort develop severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) that might require admission to hospitals and oxygen support. 5 % of the cohort will require ICU admission. Median ICU stay is 8 days.Rehabilitation is an important variable that has a positive effect on the health outcomes of severe cases of Covid 19. It helps the health system by:a. Improving health outcomes: High quality rehabilitation has the potential to reduce ICU associated conditions such as Post intensive care syndrome (PICS). Patient recovery is optimised and there is a significant reduction in the probability of disability. Severe covid 19 has the potential to cause swallow impairments, physical impairments and cognitive impairments. High quality rehabilitation has the potential to address these consequences adequately. Rehabilitation also includes psychosocial support. Rehabilitation assumes heightened significance in the context of older patients and patients with pre existing health conditions. These cohorts have a higher vulnerability to severe covid illness and rehabilitation can be expected to play an especially important role in facilitating the recovery of these patients to their pre illness independence levels.b. Optimal utilisation of hospital beds: A common feature of the pandemic has been a wide spread shortage of hospitals beds, especially ICU beds. Rehabilitation can play a vital role in decreasing the average length of stay of covid patients by getting patients ready for discharge earlier than usual. Rehabilitation is also key in ensuring continuity of care. Rehabilitation can facilitate the smooth discharge of complicated cases as well.c. Reduction in Covid 19 hospital readmission rates: High quality rehabilitation can significantlyreduce hospital readmission rates. It achieves this by ensuring that the clinical condition of patients does not worsen after discharge, thereby not necessitating readmission. This has a salutary effect on bed count.

A contrasting of the pernicious and the salubrious: An assessment of the global impact of the covid 19 pandemic on technology and information

In this paper, we do an assessment of the global impact of the Covid 19 pandemic on Technology and Information. Technology is assessed through the indicators of Robotics, 3 D printing, Internet of Things (IoT), Artificial intelligence (AI) and Biotechnology. Information is assessed through the indicators of Access/Privacy, Data growth, False news and social media and Knowledge and learning. There has been a heightened interest in Robotics due to public health and labour shortages. In the long term, this could translate into increased replacement of human labour across sectors like agriculture, food and healthcare. The pandemic has stimulated rapid manufacture of medical components through the accelerated adoption of 3D printing technology. Going forward, there is a high probability of an accelerated replacement of traditional manufacturing processes with 3D printing technologies. This is more so in healthcare. IoT usage remains high in the pandemic. Certain sectors have witnessed dramatic increments in quantums of data flows. Going forward, there will be an increased dependence on IoT in everyday use. This will be particularly true for health monitoring and surveillance. The pandemic has seen a massive uptick in the adoption of AI chatbots and other AI applications.In the long term, AI will see increased spending on Research and Development. Adoption timelines will shorten. In hot pursuit of the development of Covid 19 related vaccines and therapeutics, the synthetic biology industry has seen a surge in investment. In the long run, the global competition for leadership in biotechnology will only become more fierce. The pandemic has broadened the use of digital surveillance. Going forward, companies and countries will likely expand digital surveillance. Social and commercial activities have seen digitalisation on a large scale. The future is likely to see a significant shift to an online first culture and an increase in the rate of growth of data volume. The pandemic has facilitated the creation of a fertile environment for fake news. Going ahead, there are heightened prospects of an intensification of the existing geopolitical competition in misinformation. The pandemic has widened the adoption of online learning. Moving ahead, this could have the unfortunate consequence of widening the existing digital divide in society, which in turn could perpetuate inequity. © 2021 Universitatea de Vest Vasile Goldis din Arad. All rights reserved.

Covid-19 pandemic and economic performances of the states in India

Using state-level aggregate data from India, this paper examines the impact of Covid-19 pandemic and its containment efforts on macroeconomic performance after controlling for several initial conditions, the structure of the state economies, and healthcare and public health capabilities. A panel regression analysis based on state-level monthly unemployment data from April to November 2020 indicates that states experiencing higher spread of Covid-19, with adverse initial economic conditions, and larger employment dependence on secondary and tertiary sector have suffered significantly larger economic losses. In contrast, states with better containment strategy, higher healthcare capabilities, and a relatively larger employment share of the primary sector have experienced smaller economic losses. Further, the nationwide lockdown during the months of April and May had significant adverse effects on the state economies. Finally, the spread of the virus interacts with each of the above factors to significantly impact state economic performances. These results are informative not only for policies and strategies for short and long-term recovery of the state economies in India but also for understanding actual and potential economic impacts of the pandemic acrosscountries. © 2021 Economic Society of Australia, Queensland

Surveillance Strategies for the COVID-19 Virus in India

The Covid 19 situation in India holds forth tremendous challenges for the Indian public healthcare system. The current situation is unprecedented. The Covid 19 s high infectivity rate coupled with a high case fatality rate have created a situation where India could see between 2 and 25 lakh deaths over the next 12 to 18 months. The final number of fatalities will depend a great deal on several factors of which surveillance is a critical one. Surveillance will determine the extent to which the government is able to mount a data driven response. Surveillance will help in identifying hot spots and clusters. This in turn will help in mounting targeted responses. In the words of the WHO director general: "Test, test, test. A fire cannot be fought blindfolded." India s response has not been satisfactory. This paper discusses the need for a stronger surveillance system and a higher testing rate. If the avalanche of Covid 19 cases requiring hospitalisation comes, the current infrastructure and manpower will be grossly inadequate for it. If India is able to set up a robust and comprehensive surveillance system across urban-rural divides, that might well be a game changer in the covid 19 battle. Failure could mean lakhs more die. Copyright © 2020 EManuscript Technologies. All rights reserved.